BetRight Mystery Winnings Boost
BetRights Mystery promotion is offered twice a week, usually Wednesdays and Saturdays, across multiple pre-selected races. This promotion will pay out your winnings on a fixed odds bet, as well as returning double your stake in bonus bets to a maximum of $100. This means the ideal stake is $50 every race, as it is stake dependent not odds dependent.
BetRight T’s and C’s state that the mystery races are selected at 9am the day prior. The eligible races will be displayed on the mystery promotion page, usually 2-4 tracks meaning 16-40 races are potential mystery races. Anecdotally mysteries are more likely on races with $3-$4 favourites.
The mystery part of the mystery promotion is that we as matched bettors are not able to know which races have been selected in advance, and are only told after the fact.
You can read a short explanation by one of our resident experts and moderators Sherlock, here:
BetRight Mystery Promos - how to judge if it's good EV.
Short answer: treat the mystery as if it's an odds boost of about 0.4 to see if it's good value.
Long answer for anyone wanting to know whether it's worth betting on a particular horse/race, here is the logic:
- If it is a mystery race, you win $100 BB, worth about $80 cash value, which is basically the same as if you'd added 1.6 to the back odds.
- But the mystery races only happen on random races. Maybe 10 mystery races out of a possible 38 races across four tracks, is typical.
- So the actual average odds boost you are getting for EV purposes is 1.6 x (10/38) = 0.42. Adjust these numbers if the track/race numbers are different each week
So on any race, if you add 0.42 to the horse's odds and it becomes higher than betfair, then it's worth betting. For example:
- On most low odds favs it's worth betting. A 2 odds horse boosted to 2.42 will almost always be above betfair odds, and therefore +EV
- On higher odds horses, a 5 odds horse boosted to 5.42 might still be below betfair and -EV. You might still have a -EV 5.42/5.5 match
- Anything with bad QL and a bookie/betfair spread of 0.42 or more is -EV. SO even a 3.7/4.1 match, which might be OK for a 2nd/3rd promo, is about 0 EV here.
Oh and sometimes if it's late in the day you might know in advance if a race is a promo race. In those cases, if you're certain, add 1.6 to the back odds to decide.
- Sherlock
The longer explanation, as an example. If we knew for 100% certainty that the next race was a mystery, we could add 1.6 to the back odds and calculate our new back/lay as if this was a standard odds boost. We can do this because we are being returned double our stake (notionally adding 2 to our odds) in bonus bets which we can then convert at 80% retention (realistically adding 1.6 to our odds) if our selection wins. This could be calculated using the back/lay calculator the same way we would any other odds boost promotion.
However, as we do not know which races will be mysteries in advance, this doesn't work in practice. There are some logical deductions that can be made (i.e. if there are three races left in the day and three mysteries left to trigger, we could assume all three will be mysteries), but we generally don't know when the mystery bonus will be activated. The best we can do is take the information we are given and calculate how to approach each race one at a time.
We can approximate the boost per race by splitting over all remaining races.
1.6 X (mysteries remaining/total races remaining) = shared odds boost
1.6 X (10/38) = 0.42
We can see if a match is worth taking by adding this odds boost to the horses odds and seeing if it becomes higher than the lay odds on Betfair. This lends itself to shorter favourites as 2 into 2.42 is more likely to beat the lay odds than 10 into 10.42. We can then approach this as a normal back/lay same as we would any other qualifying bet.
You can use the below calculator for more information:
Shortlink URL to BetRight Mystery Calculator: https://bit.ly/BETRIGHTMYSTERYCALC