What EV should I aim for when using HP?

The short answer is always to select the highest EV available. But here is a more practical guide.

Target EV ranges

• Promo bets: Aim for +$5 to +$8 EV per bet depending on the promo type.
• Mug bets: Around -$3 is acceptable. A mug bet is expected to lose a small amount by design.

When you pair a +$8 promo bet with a -$3 mug bet, the net EV across the pair is +$5. Averaging +$5 per pair over a large number of bets produces consistent long-term profit.

If you are not mugging you can aim slightly lower on your promo bets since you do not need to offset the mug bet cost.

Factors that affect EV

• Number of runners: Fewer runners in a race means a higher chance of your selection finishing in a bonus position. This should result in higher EV in smaller fields. Adjust your target accordingly.
• Commission rate: Higher Betfair commission reduces your net EV when laying. Races run in NSW and ACT carry a 10% commission rate, which lowers the effective EV compared to other states.
• Promo type: Cash back promos have a higher return than bonus bet refunds since cash is worth more than a bonus bet at the same face value. This will result in a higher EV for cash back promos.