'No lay' horse racing strategy

The no-lay approach means placing your back bet at the bookmaker without placing a corresponding lay bet on Betfair. It is a legitimate strategy used by experienced members, but it comes with significantly higher variance than the standard lay approach.

If you are new to matched betting, always lay your bets. Laying is a fundamental skill that builds your understanding of how racing markets work. Only consider a no-lay approach after you have fully mastered the standard method.

The case for no-lay

No-lay has a higher expected value than laying because you avoid paying Betfair commission on every race. For active members working multiple bookies on a Saturday, this can add up to a meaningful difference over time. It also saves time, which matters when you are trying to place bets across many accounts within a narrow window before the race.

The case against

The variance is substantial. A typical run of results with no-lay involves extended stretches in negative territory and large swings. A bad run of ten unplaced races costs around $500 with no lay, compared to around $50 if you lay every bet. Those losses are real and they happen to everyone eventually.

No-lay is only worth considering if you have a bankroll large enough to absorb those swings without it affecting your ability to keep betting, and the temperament to ride out large losses without chasing. If either of those conditions is not met, the standard lay approach will always be the right choice.

Trying it for the first time

If you want to experiment with no-lay, start gradually. Try underlaying at 25% of your normal lay stake for a few weeks before committing further. There is no rush, and the lay approach will always be there if you decide it suits you better.

For a detailed breakdown of all the factors involved, including variance charts comparing both strategies over 100 races, see the Lay vs No Lay lesson in the Horse Racing course.