No Lay Multis
No lay multis is the simplest and highest EV approach to multi promos. You place the multi at the bookmaker and wait for the results. No Betfair account is needed and no lay bet is required. The trade-off is variance. Individual multis will lose regularly, and you need to think long-term for the edge to show up in your results.
How the EV works
The edge comes entirely from the promo. When exactly one leg fails and triggers a bonus bet worth around 80% of your stake, you lose just 20% rather than 100%. By giving you less downside risk, while still retaining the upside when the multi wins, this leads to profits over a large enough sample size.
A +EV position does not guarantee profit on any individual multi. Swings are unavoidable with the no-lay approach. The value will play out over the long-term though.
Selecting your legs
The optimal strategy for a no-lay multi is to minimise the odds on all legs except one, and maximise the odds on that final leg. In theory, for a three-leg multi with a minimum odds requirement of 1.10, the highest EV combination would be 1.10, 1.10, and the highest odds you can find. This maximises the probability of exactly one leg failing, while also maximising the payout when all legs win.
In practice, extremely high odds on the final leg are not sustainable. You would need a very large bankroll and a long wait between winning multis. The Multi-Matcher lets you set a risk tolerance to cap the maximum odds of that leg. A setting in the 2.00 to 5.00 range balances EV against a realistic frequency of winning multis for most members.
The Multi-Matcher also measures efficiency for each selection, which is how close the bookie's back odds are to Betfair's lay odds. Higher efficiency means less value is lost to the bookmaker's margin. The tool only considers legs above a minimum efficiency threshold and displays the efficiency percentage for each selection so you can see how different choices affect overall EV.
The Multi-Matcher
The Multi-Matcher pulls data from the ATM to find the most +EV combinations based on your filters. It calculates overall EV and shows the payout and probability for every possible outcome.
Key settings:
- Fails and Profit Boosts: Default settings assume a one-leg-fails bonus bet promo. Adjust these for profit boost promos where no refund is available.
- Low Var toggle: Switches all selections to lower-odds options for more consistent results at the cost of some EV.
- SNR toggle: Switches the EV calculation to show expected return when using a bonus bet instead of cash.
The bottom section lists high-efficiency selections split into low-odds and high-odds options. The tool selects the best combination automatically but you can swap any selection in or out manually. Occasionally a manual swap will find a slightly higher EV combination than the automatic selection.
For a full walkthrough, see the No Lay Multis lesson in the Multis course.