What should I do when Betfair liquidity is too low?
Low Betfair liquidity means there are not enough bets on the other side of the market to match your lay at the odds you want. This is a different problem from a partially matched bet, where you have already placed and some of your stake is sitting unmatched. Low liquidity is something you identify before placing and need a strategy for.
Why liquidity varies
Betfair is a marketplace driven by user activity. High-profile events like AFL finals, Premier League matches, or Saturday metro horse racing attract enormous liquidity, sometimes millions of dollars. Less popular markets, minor sports, mid-week racing at smaller tracks, or obscure international events can have very little.
Liquidity also changes over time. A market that has $200 available two days before an event might have $20,000 available one hour before. This is the most practical fix for most low-liquidity situations: wait.
Options when liquidity is too low
Wait for the market to fill. Liquidity builds as an event approaches. For most major sports and racing markets, betting on the day of the event gives you a much better chance of getting your full stake matched at a reasonable price. This is also better for account sustainability, since most regular punters bet close to the start.
Accept a partial match and adjust. If you need to act now and the liquidity is limited, place as much as you can at the current odds and use the advanced calculator to work out the adjusted lay stake at the new odds once the market moves. See the article on partially matched bets for a full walkthrough of this process.
Use the Dutching calculator instead. If Betfair liquidity is too low to lay, dutching lets you cover the same outcome across two bookmakers rather than using the exchange. You back all outcomes across different bookies and balance the stakes to achieve the same result. This approach also avoids Betfair commission, which can improve returns.
Skip the bet. Not every opportunity needs to be taken. If the market is too illiquid to match safely and the alternatives are not attractive, moving on to the next opportunity is a legitimate choice. The ATM updates continuously and there will be another option.
Low liquidity in horse racing
Horse racing markets can be particularly unpredictable. Large bets and late scratchings can move the market sharply in seconds. For racing, the general rule is to wait until the market is stable, typically within 30 minutes of jump time for metropolitan races. For country meetings or smaller fields, liquidity may be thinner throughout. HorsePower flags available liquidity alongside EV figures so you can factor it into your decision.
The Take SP option on Betfair is a useful fallback for racing. Rather than leaving an unmatched bet exposed, selecting Take SP guarantees your bet will be matched at whatever price is available at jump. Your liability stays the same but your stake adjusts, which slightly increases your qualifying loss. For most racing refund promos, this trade-off is acceptable.
A note on in-play
Online in-play sports betting is prohibited in Australia for users with an Australian IP address. Do not attempt to match an unmatched sports bet after the event starts by waiting for it to fill in-play. In-play horse racing bets are permitted online.