How to identify boosted offers
The first step is to determine exactly what kind of offer the bookie is providing, as this will determine the type of calculation we need to do to find if this offer has positive expected value (+EV) or not.
Identify Your Offer Type
Bookies word their offers in fairly predictable patterns, but also like to jazz them up to make them sound interesting or exciting, this can make it confusing to a newbie exactly what they are offering. Examples below can help determine
Boosted odds - A single selection offered at a specific price
Sounds like:
[Team] to win
[Team A] to defeat [Team B]
[Player] to score
[Team] to lead at HT
[Team] to lift the cup
X and Y to occur - Two or more outcomes joined by "and," where all of them need to happen
Sounds like:
[Player A] and [Player B] to both score
[Team] to win and [Player] to score X+
[Player] to score a goal and [Player] to record X+ disposals
Both teams to score X+ goals
[Player A], [Player B] and [Player C] to all make the cut
[Team A] to beat [Team B], and [Team C] to beat [Team D]
X or Y to occur- Two or more outcomes joined by "or," where the offer pays if at least one happens
Sounds like:
[Player A] or [Player B] to score the first try
[Player A] to score the first or second goal
[Player A] or [Player B] to score
[Team A], [Team B] or [Team C] to make the Grand Final
[Player A], [Player B] or [Player C] to lead after round 1
X to win out of N - A group of selections and a minimum number that need to come through
Sounds like:
2 or more of these 4 favourites to win
Any 3 of these 5 players to score
Any Aussie to finish Top 10
Any 2 of these 10 golfers to make the cut
Any 2 boxers on todays card to win by KO
Any horse trained by [Trainer] to win
[Jockey A] to win 2+ races
Combined totals - A single shared number across two or more players or teams, but is one selection
Sounds like:
[Player A] and [Player B] to combine for X+ [goals, points, disposals]
[Team A] and [Team B] to combine for X+ total points
[Jockey A] and [Jockey B] to win 2+ races at [Track]
[Jockey A] and [Jockey B] to combine for 5+ Winners
[Player A], [Player B] and [Player C] to combine for X+ runs
[Team A] and [Team B] to score X+ goals