Expected value

Understanding expected value, or EV, is the key to making a long-term profit in any kind of betting.

The EV is the amount that you should expect to make (or lose) on a bet based on the known probabilities.

When the odds are in your favour (due to an odds boost or promo) the bet can be said to have a positive expected value (+EV).

If the odds are against you (like in a casino game or mug bet) the bet has a negative expected value (-EV).

Our goal as matched bettors is only ever to place bets with a +EV.

That doesn't mean we will win every bet. Even +EV bets lose some times (see our lesson on value bets for more info). However, in the long-run we will always come out ahead.

Knowing whether or not a bet has a +EV can sometimes be tricky. That is why we have our EV calculator.

For info on how to use the EV calc check out this lesson.