Staking on arbs

When you find arbitrage opportunities on our ATM or Dutching software it can be tempting to dive in with the biggest stakes possible. However, if you value your accounts this is never a good idea.

If your account is still eligible for promos our advice is to avoid arbing altogether. You should only be arbing on gubbed accounts.

If you are already banned from promos the rest of this post should help you make sustainable profits from arbing.

Liabilities, not Stakes

One of the key things to be aware of is that your stake size isn't actually the main thing to consider. The bookmakers liability is far more important.

For example, if you stake $1000 at odds of 1.05 the bookie is only risking $50. Whereas, if you stake $50 at odds of 11 the bookie is risking $500. The second option is much more likely to get your account flagged, even though the stake is much smaller.

Things to Consider

No two arbs are exactly the same. Before you decide on an appropriate liability you should consider the following:

• The event you are betting on:
  • Bookies will be more comfortable accepting a large liability on an event where they are taking lots of other bets. For that reason, you can place a larger bet on a match in the English Premier League than you can on a match in the Scottish Premier League. Always consider how many other people in Australia would be betting on the same event.
• The market you are betting on:
  • For the same reason, you need to adjust your liabilities based on the market. Lots of people bet on the Match Odds market, so you can get away with higher liabilities there. Not many people will be betting on the total number of corners in a match, so a small stake would be required to stay off the radar.
• The time until the event:
  • The further away the event is, the smaller your liabilities should be. Ideally you should be placing your bets as close to the start time as possible.
• The size of the arb:
  • The bigger the arb, the more likely it is to be reviewed by a trader. Check out this post for more info about high-risk arbs.

So how much should i stake?

Even if we know all of the variables, it isn't possible to say with 100% certainty where the sweet spot for arbing is. However, if you want to be sustainable it is always a good idea to err on the side of caution.

With the Player Prop arbs that are found every day on the Pro version of our dutching software we recommend having a max liability $100. Most long-term users would go even lower.

The profits with such low liabilities may not seem as exciting as the amount you would make with max stakes, but your long-term profits will be greater.