Should I try to pick losers so my money moves to Betfair?

When you place a fully matched bet, a back bet at the bookie and a matching lay bet at Betfair, your financial result is the same whichever side wins. What changes is where your money ends up sitting afterwards.

If your back bet wins, your bookie balance will increase and your Betfair balance will decrease. If your back bet loses, the bookie balance decreases and the Betfair balance increases.

As matched bettors it is usually better for us if the money flows into Betfair. This helps us avoid requesting withdrawals from the bookies and potentially facing an account review. The bookies also tend to look more favourably on a losing account when it comes to offering deposit matches. However, this isn't something we can control.

If you could reliably pick the selections that were going to lose, you wouldn't need matched betting in the first place. You'd just lay those selections directly on Betfair and take the profit without ever touching a bookie.

Picking long-odds selections because underdogs "usually lose" doesn't get you there either. High-odds bets win often enough that it works against you. When one comes in, the bookie pays out at those long odds, and a much bigger share of your bankroll ends up at the bookie instead of Betfair, the opposite of what you were aiming for.

Over time, your bankroll will naturally flow between the bookies and Betfair. You will need to withdraw from both places at some point. In fact, it will be more common to have to withdraw from the bookies. This is because the bookie side is where we have an edge, so profits are more likely to flow in that direction. With this in mind, it is important to practice good account sustainability so that withdrawals aren't a thing to be feared.