What is Tote-No-Lay (TNL)?

Tote No Lay is an advanced strategy that you can use to save time when turning over a large number of bonus bets. It is extremely high variance and is only recommended for those with large bankrolls who are dealing with extremely high volumes of BBs.

The Theory

The odds that you receive when placing Tote bets are based on the the total amount bet into the tote pool on that race, minus the amount that TAB takes as commission, then divided by the volume of bets on that horse. This means that the odds are not determined until after the race has started and betting has closed. Therefore, the time that you place your bets is irrelevant. Everyone who bets on the same horse will receive the same odds, no matter when they placed their bet.

If we assume that this is an efficient method of calculating odds, over a large enough sample size we could expect our return on Tote bets to be equal to our stake, minus the TAB commission of around 14.5%. In other words, we would receive about 85.5% of our money back.

If we use SNR bonus bets instead of cash this return will be lower, but by picking horses at sufficiently high odds we should be able to get around an 80% return over the long-term.

The Strategy

The below table demonstrates the theoretical EV for TNL bets at each odds point. 

Most matched bettors recommend aiming for 80%+ return on bonus bets, and thus would choose an odds range with a minimum of 16 odds. The ceiling of your odds range will depend on your appetite for variance; as the greater the odds range, the greater the variance. 

It is also perfectly okay to target a slightly lower odds range to reduce variance: e.g. the 10-20 range, which would provide nearly 80% theoretical return.

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Simply place all of your bonus bets on horses within a certain odds range, taking tote odds instead of fixed odds. You do not place any lay bet.

The odds range that you choose will come down to your personal preference. In theory, higher odds should provide a higher return, but they will also come with higher variance. At the lower end of the scale you should have minimum odds of at least 10, but you may choose to go higher.

In order to reduce variance you may choose to split your bonus bets into smaller stakes (e.g. turn a $50 BB into 4x $12.50 BBs). You can also place multiple bets on the same race if there is more than one horse that is within your odds range.

Pro's

• More than anything, this is a time saving strategy. You can turn over hundreds of dollars in bonus bets in just a few minutes. You can also do it at any time of day. If you are dealing with thousands of dollars in BBs every week, this could save you hours. Furthermore, you can place your TNL bets in advance, e.g. on the morning of a race day, which frees up more time to focus on your promo bets.
• If you are full no-lay and placing TNL bets on the same races as your promo bets, this will reduce your variance. Note that this often creates a 'deadband', in the odds range of ~$7-15, where you will not have promo or TNL bets.
• No risk of making errors when laying (double lays, adding an extra zero etc)

Con's

• VARIANCE. Before considering this approach please understand that you could easily go on a long run where you only retain a small amount of your bonus bet value. You could turn $5000 in bonus bets into $500 cash. Once you factor in qualifying losses you could actually make a loss. This strategy works well when you are dealing with hundreds of bonus bets. If you have 10 or 20 BBs per week this probably isn't for you.
• This strategy also gives less than optimal returns. If you have time, patience, and experience, you can get 90%+ from your bonus bets (see this thread for tips). That extra 10% can make a substantial difference over time.
• You will not accumulate Betfair points. This means that you will be unlikely to get a commission discount that will increase your profits elsewhere.
• If a horse that you bet on is scratched, or the race is abandoned, TAB have a tendency not to refund the bonus bet. Unless you keep track of this and contact them you could lose some BBs.

To re-iterate, the TNL strategy is only suitable if you are dealing with high numbers of bonus bets and are very comfortable with variance. If that does not apply to you we recommend using the standard 'back & lay' approach to guarantee a profit from every bonus bet that you earn.